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A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while Unai Emery admonished him for not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club failed to win in six, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or a cause of Villa's broader struggles.

“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers swept in his second to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician discarded his jacket, threw his arms wide and roared. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win their opening six matches, are somehow just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the wins have stacked up.

According to the data, in only two games has the side registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a club which has strung together 10 in a row, the Villans look curiously susceptible – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Reliant Strategy

Their recent policy appears to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and again when facing United.

The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.

“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”

Can It Last?

Logic says not. Against United, the opposition had more efforts and more direct attempts. The team has triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the net's top corner forever.

Potential for Growth

Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Important figures may yet find their top level.

• Ollie Watkins could start scoring again.
• Jadon Sancho might become the force he was during his peak.
• The defensive duo are due to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the midfielder now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital Three Lions star.

The current run is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended conducting the cheers, he appeared to be loving the experience. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.