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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with current polling data indicating that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) could once again win the most seats, though experts believe the party is unlikely of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

The PVV, which in the last election pulled off a surprise first-place finish and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is currently marginally ahead in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, PVV's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in June amid disagreements concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, headed by former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 parliamentary seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the PVV, liberal-conservative VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just 0.67% of the vote earns a party one MP. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by multi-party governments – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of power. But, critics and analysts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that after the most extreme government in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will test possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before assuming power.