Why Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Accounts of an upcoming American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after President Trump said he intended to confer with Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial meeting by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," President Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday afternoon. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what happens."
- Donald Trump states he did not want a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
- Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the US president after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange deal in the Palestinian territory.
During a speech in the North African country recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia resolved," he declared.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough possible for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Reduced Influence
According to the lead negotiator, the key to achieving a deal was Israel's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that infuriated US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump bargaining power to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, encompassing his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.
Combine the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to secure an agreement.
In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between efforts to pressure Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has threatened to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the war.
At the same time, the US leader has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing weapon deliveries to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who caution a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the entire region.
The president loves to tout his ability to meet and hammer out agreements, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.
The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a settlement – and faith in direct negotiations - as a means of manipulating him.
In July, Putin consented to a summit in the US state at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on legislative penalties backed by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards put on hold.
Recently, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously sending Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible summit in Hungary.
The next day, Trump welcomed Zelensky at the executive residence, but left without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he remarked.
But the Ukrainian leader subsequently made note of the timeline of developments.
"As soon as the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has ultimately settled on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has rejected.
On the campaign trail last year, Trump vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that commitment, admitting that concluding the war is proving harder than he expected.
It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his authority – and the challenge of establishing a peace plan when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.